We talked about some NFL Picks last week, and I’m here to make a few more.
First, I never said who was going to win that Super Bowl match-up. Apparently, everyone in Vegas agrees with me that the Green Bay Packers hoist their fifth Lombardi trophy because tons of money has been coming in on Rodgers and company from what ESPN reported this morning. It makes sense too, as their odds on Bovada have jumped from 10:1 in June to 6:1 currently. For those of you who aren’t aware of how sports betting works, 6:1 means that betting 100 dollars wins you 700 in return – 600 plus your initial bet of 100.
Talking about gambling has me all fired up now, so that’s going to be the theme of the column today. We’ll go through some sports bets I really like for both week 1 of the NFL season and futures props, which is where we bet on a team or player to do something.
NFL Futures Props
Note that all odds come from Bovada. Of course, as a disclaimer, this all hypothetical and exists solely as a thought experiment.
Worst Overall Record – Cowboys +3300
Let’s cover pluses and minuses too for a minute. Plus 3300 means that betting 100 dollars wins you 3400 hundred dollars (3300 plus your initial bet). If that number were a minus, it would mean that you’d have to bet 3300 dollars to win 100 dollars. So large pluses are unlikely and large minuses are extremely likely. With rookies starting all over the place and a record that was in the five worst in the league last year, this seems like a solid bet to make at such long odds.
Passing Yards Leader – Kirk Cousins +2500
Again, I’m not boldly saying Kirk Cousins is going to lead the NFL in passing yards (I think that’s Drew Brees), but I do think he does it more than 4% of the time. Washington doesn’t have much of a running game and in the second half of the season last year, Cousins was on fire. If the defense disappoints, they might be playing from behind a lot.
Rushing Yards Leader – Lamar Miller +900
The Texans have an inexperienced QB, paid Miller a ton of money, and ran Arian Foster into the dirt. I would not be surprised to see him get 300 touches, and if he can keep a healthy average he’ll be in the running to lead yards. Also important: Miller was never injured during his time in Miami. His durability may lead to 16 starts, which would allow him to get those touches.
Coach of the Year – McCarthy (+1200), Carroll (+1200), Gus Bradley (+1600)
I think either the Packers or Seahawks have the best record in the NFL, which usually gets the coach the nod. The other way a coach can win it is to turn around a bad team, which I think Bradley does in Jacksonville. If you split 100 dollars three ways, you’re returning 300 on a win with the first two and 400 and change if Bradley gets it done
Week 1 Stone Cold Lock of the Century… of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-125)
This means that the Buccaneers will either win, or lose by 3 or less. So if the game is 14-13, you’d actually win the bet. You’ll have to bet 125 dollars to win 100 on this.
Get your asses on the Jameis Winston hype train boys. If you can get the moneyline on this game (which means the Buccaneers win, you’re not getting three points anymore but you’ll win more money if it happens), I’d recommend going that route.