Always bet against Blaine, baby. This week, we’re going to go right back to the well on that. The Arizona Cardinals are desperate to win after a slow start and, though they are favored to win (on the road), they’re playing in the wasteland that is Levi’s stadium. Carson Palmer might not be great, but you’d have to think he’s roughly as good or better than Dak Prescott (who, by the way, helped move my lock picking to 3-1 on the season).
… Okay, that might be a bit overboard considering Dak is the unarguable GOAT and possibly our lord and savior; but I’m sticking to my guns here and doubling down on the knowledge that the 49ers, sans All Pro linebacker Navarro Bowman and definitely not sans all trash QB Blaine Gabbert, are poised to get thrashed by the Cardinals again. Just like last season, when they lost by 40 points in their game in Arizona.
The only thing that scares me here is that this is the week where the Colin Kaepernick fairy-tale return begins. He’s going to get his chance at some point this season, and I’m praying it’s not this week.
Actually, let’s touch on that for a second. Regardless of what you might feel about Kaepernick’s decision to take a stand against racial profiling by police in this country, you have to agree that this was a very wise decision for him. Since he took his stand, he’s seen his jersey sales and twitter followers skyrocket. Now, he’s also currently the most disliked player in the NFL, but as they say, a negative reaction is better than none at all. He’s moving the needle, and he’s put himself back on the map. That, in and of itself, is pretty smart.
But, taking it a step beyond that, Kaepernick allowed himself some leverage with the 49ers by making that stand. As you may or may not know, Kaepernick is the highest paid backup in the NFL. Based on that information alone, the 49ers would probably be well within their rights to cut him. After all, they aren’t expected to compete this year so having tens of millions of dollars sitting on the bench probably isn’t the best idea. However, after his emergence onto the public scene for a very, very fiery issue I can’t imagine that the York family would want to put themselves under that type of microscope for cutting the NFL’s voice of racial discrimination. That’s leverage. And even if they do cut him, a large portion of the public is going to be cheering for his comeback. Hell, even the people that don’t like him are probably going to show some sympathy. After all, we might not like someone else’s opinion, but most of us don’t want to see them getting fired over it.
This was a brilliant move across the board, increasing your revenue and giving yourself leverage in a contract situation are both very strong moves in their own right. But combining them in one fell swoop is one of the top power plays in NFL history. I always want to add that though I don’t necessarily agree with what Kaepernick, I do very much celebrate him for exercising his right to do it and starting a national conversation about a topic that desperately needs to be addressed. That’s where I’ll leave it. I could write a very lengthy article about policing and race in this country, but instead I’m just going to leave this link to a very interesting Malcom Gladwell article about some of the top issues in our country, it’s worth a read. Give Million Dollar Murray a look and let me know what you think.
Anyways, let’s get things back on track. I’m going to get rich off of Blaine Gabbert’s incompetence or fucking die trying. What I’m not going to allow to happen is to have some wacky bullshit happen and have San Francisco sneak within a field goal late. So I’m going to buy a point and bet Arizona -3 at -145 as my SCLPLotCotW. For those of you new to gambling, buying a point means that I’m taking the original line of -4 at -110 and making it a little easier for Arizona to cover, for doing so, I’m getting a little worse odds. Instead of betting 110 dollars to win 100, I’m betting 145 to win 100.
Don’t say I never taught you anything. And definitely don’t say I haven’t made you some money. Unless, of course, you’re not reading this until the season is over. But that’s on you.
EDIT: Carson Palmer has been ruled out. Let this be a lesson to everyone to wait until the day of before making bets. Regardless, the money is less on Arizona, and more on the inconsistency of San Fran. I’d now take the point to move the line to -2.5 at -160. The odds are a little worse, but that half point makes a big difference.