It’s officially NFL Regular Season eve and wouldn’t you know it, I’ve been spending all of my writing time trying to perfectly capture the rise of Taylor Swift from starlet to Queen.
So, given that, I’m really up against it here. Let’s dive right in. As always, all odds from Sportsbook.ag.
Passing Yards Leader – Patrick Mahomes (25:1)
Mahomes reminds me a lot of other big, athletic quarterbacks who have had a lot of success with Andy Reid masterminding their offense. He’s going to be slinging it a lot and Tyreek Hill is going to stretch a lot of 30 yard gains into 70 yard touchdowns. As usual, I’m betting someone with a little bit longer odds. I only have to hit one of these every three years or so to break even.
Rushing Yards Leader – Alex Collins (40:1)
Collins is going to be carrying the ball a lot this year and plays in an offense that will not stop running the ball even if they’re behind. He’s also on a team that shouldn’t need to rest any players for playoff considerations (looking at you Todd Gurley), so he should get a full sixteen games barring injuries. Lastly, his competition is pretty weak. And that’s coming from the guy who owns Buck Allen.
Receiving Yards Leader – Davante Adams (30:1)
The number one receiver playing with Aaron Rodgers is getting thirty to one. The perception might be fair – Adams has always been a red zone player, more likely to catch an acrobatic touchdown than to rip off a long gain. But Adams is no longer playing across from yardage monster Jordy Nelson and new arrival Jimmy Graham should take a lot of attention away from the middle of the field, opening up more space down the sidelines and giving Adams some additional routes to work with. With such long odds, this seems like value to me.
Defensive MVP – Luke Kuechly (30:1)
One of the league’s prolific tackling machines promises to put up eye popping numbers again. If the Panthers defense returns to form, he could be putting on a repeat performance of 2013. Any time I can bet on a former winner with such cache at such long odds, I’m taking it.
Buffalo Bills – UNDER 5.5 Wins
Look, the Bills are fucking terrible. Their QB is Nate fucking Peterman. LeSean McCoy is basically running on fumes. Kelvin Benjamin is like six hundred pounds. Unless Josh Allen is the second coming of Jim Kelly, this team might not win one game, let alone five.
Chicago Bears – OVER 6.5 Wins
This was written down before they traded for the highest paid defensive player.
Cincinnati Bengals – AFC North Champions (8:1)
I think we can pretty safely rule out the Browns and the Ravens from this race, so the odds being this long seem off to me, especially given the consistent performance of the Bengals over the last several season (2017 excluded). I think we’re probably suffering a little recency bias here. The Steelers are still without LeVeon Bell, and if he does end up missing any amount of time their team is in trouble.